Rough schedule for the day

Outline for the lecture

(Social) Simulation

The idea of simulation is relatively new - started in 1960s but didn't take of until 1990s

Early failures (e.g. Club of Rome, 1974) made it unattractive

Emergence of Artificial Intelligence ideas in 1990s rekindled enthusiasm in individual-level approaches (e.g. cellular-automata and ABM).

Uses of Simulation

Understanding

Experimentation: Can we gain new insights and understanding of the world?

Test theories in a virtual laboratory

AKA exploratory approaches

Prediction

If we can accurately replicate the dynamics of behaviour – we can predict what will happen in the future (?)

However, the further ahead we predict, the less accurate we become.

Also known as predictive approaches

Uses of Simulation

Substitute

If we can simulate the expertise of a doctor (expert systems), does this remove the need for the human expert?

Training

Creation of programs/environments to train experts e.g. virtual car and flight simulators

Discovery and Formalisation

Discover new processes and knowledge about the phenomenon we are simulating through experimentation

Formalise this into new theories

Uses of Simulation

Entertainment

Introduction to ABM

Aggregate v.s. Individual

'Traditional' modelling methods work at an aggregate level, from the top-down

E.g. Regression, spatial interaction modelling, location-allocation, etc.

Aggregate models work very well in some situations

Homogeneous individuals

Interactions not important

Very large systems (e.g. pressure-volume gas relationship)

Introduction to ABM

Aggregate v.s. Individual

But they miss some important things:

Low-level dynamics, i.e. “smoothing out” (Batty, 2005)

Interactions and emergence (more on these later)

Unsuitable for modelling complex systems

Introduction to ABM

Aggregate v.s. Individual

Systems are driven by individuals

(cars, people, ants, trees, whatever)

Bottom-up modelling

An alternative approach to modelling

Rather than controlling from the top, try to represent the individuals

Account for system behaviour directly

What is an agent?

Some common characteristics

Heterogeneous

Reactive

Bounded Rationality

Interactive

Mobile

Learning / adaption

Appeal of ABM

A natural way to think about social systems

Individuals drive the system

Program behavioural theories directly, no need to approximate group behaviour

Modelling emergence

"A phenomenon is emergent when it can only be described and characterised using terms and measurements that are inappropriate or impossible to apply to the component units" - Gilbert (2004) page 3.

Impossible (?) to capture using aggregate models

Appeal of ABM

Can include physical space and social processes

Designed at abstract level: easy to change scale

E.g. scale up from village to city by adding more agents and changing the environment

Bridge between verbal theories and mathematical models

Disadvantages of ABM

Known unknowns

We don’t know exactly what someone will do.

So we guess - e.g. there is a 30% chance of choosing the truck

Models that use randomness like this are probabilistic

The need to run many times to ensure robust results

Example: Wolf-Sheep model

Disadvantages of ABM

Computationally expensive

Complicated agent decisions

Lots of decisions!

Multiple model runs (robustness)

Modelling "soft" human factors

Benefit that we can include complex psychology

But this is really hard!

Potential to over-complicate

Need to think carefully about what to include

Emergence

One of the main attractions for ABM. But what is it?

"A property of a collection of simple sub-units that comes about through the interactions of the sub units and is not a property of any single sub unit"

Gary Flake

"The whole is greater than the sum of its parts."

Aristotle (?)

Emergence - Quiz

When watching the video (from Nova Science, up to 4:50), think about:

If there is no leader, how are flocks etc. controlled?

List some of the organisms that demonstrate emergent behaviour.

Can you think of any other examples of emergent phenomena?

Emergence

Simple rules → complex outcomes

In the past, we have assumed that complex phenomena are driven by a complex mechanism

This is not always the case

E.g. who plans the air-conditioning in termite mounds?

Possible to prove the with simple computer programs

Agent-based models are one example, as well as others ...

If you're interested, look up 'Conway's Game of Life'

Emergence

Why is it important?

Key message: Complex structures can emerge from simple rules

Emergence is hard to anticipate, and cannot be deduced from solely analysis of individuals’ behaviour

You could not work out what a termite mound would look like by dissecting a termite.

Emergence is a characteristic of complex systems

Individual-level modelling is focused on understanding how macro-level patterns emerge from micro-level through the process of simulation.

Emergence

Example: Segregation

Thomas Schelling (Harvard) looked at racial segregation. He designed a model:

Individuals have a preference for being surrounded by neighbours of a similar type.

If they are unhappy with their neighbours, then they move to an empty cell

What do you think happens when 35%, 50% and 80% preferences are selected?

Interactions

Global and Local

Interactions are a key part of agent-based models

One of the most powerful elements for modelling complex systems

Global interactions

Can result in immediate massive changes on all agents

E.g. A new policy on migration; climate change; limits on number of children couples allowed to have

Local interactions

Interactions that occur at the micro or meso level.

Only affect those in the local vicinity.

Interactions

Interactions can be spatially constrained:

Neighbourhood feuds

Car crashes

Or a-spatially (e.g. across social networks):

Exchange of information between students about a new course

Twitter

From interactions, new information, new interactions etc emerge.

Interactions add to the complexity of the system.

Getting the interactions correct is crucial.

Types of Interactions

Direct interaction:

agents directly interacting with each other affect each other e.g. exchanging information.

Mediated or indirect interaction:

agents interact indirectly via a mediating resource e.g. competition for a shared resource.

Modelling Behaviour

Great advantage of ABM!

But lots of important decisions about what to include in a model (and how).

Result: Humans are not random! "They (we) are strange and wonderful” (Kennedy, 2012)

Modelling Behaviour

So how do we model an organism's behaviour?

Two broad approaches (and lots of disagreement):

Keep it descriptive, stupid (KIDS)

Keep it simple, stupid (KISS)

And how do you know which behaviours are important?

Modelling Behaviour

Techniques

Simple rule-based systems

IF <hunger> is below <hungerThreshold1>
THEN agent-dies.

IF <hunger> is above <hungerThreshold2>
THEN address-another-goal.

IF <hunger> is between <hungerThreshold1> and <hungerThreshold2> THEN search-for-food.

Others: PECS, Beliefs Desires Intentions (BDI), ..

Summary so far

Why Simulate?

An Introduction to Agent-Based Modelling

What is an agent?

Pros & Cons of ABM

Complexity and Emergence

Interactions and Behaviour

Now: NetLogo

Don't panic! At times you will find NetLogo programming frustrating, but there is lots of help available.

Outline

Software Tools / Platforms

What are they?

Pieces of software to help people build models

Wide range of tools

Computer code ('libraries')

Researchers write software to perform useful functions:

Draw graphs

Visualise the model

Manage the schedule

Great for programmers

Less time spend worrying about admin, more time on modelling

Examples:

Graphical Environments

Entirely visual - no programming needed

Most useful for non-programmers

Examples

Agent Sheets

VisualBots

Repast Simphony

Modelling4All

Somewhere in the middle

Some code writing, some visual development

More powerful than purely visual tools, but easier to use.

Save time having to learn to do simple tasks and concentrate on model behaviour

e.g. NetLogo

Base on Star Logo.

Popular teaching tool

Designed to be used by children

But also powerful

Developed by The Center for Connected Learning (CCL) and Computer-Based Modeling at Northwestern University

Free!

Uses Java in the background

Multi platform; can be converted into applets (and embedded in websites)

Great for quickly putting a model together and thinking through ideas

Easy to: build; interact with models; extract data and create plots

Excellent documentation: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/docs/

Example - Segregation (Schelling)

Example - Ants

The Program

NetLogo is "somewhere in the middle"

Graphical part (Interface) with sliders, graphs, buttons and a map

Scripting part (Procedures) which contains instructions (code)

The Interface

Interface Components

Switch		Slider
Button		Monitor
Graph

The Information Tab

The Program - Code

Turtles, Patches and the Observer

There are two types of objects in NetLogo: turtles and patches.

Both are agents

They have rules that determine their behaviour

They can interact with other agents

Main differences:

Patches cannot move

You can create different types of 'turtle' (e.g. person, dog, cat, car, etc.)

Why turtles?

Turtles, Patches and the Observer

Also important: the observer

The 'god' of a model

Oversea everything that happens, give orders to turtles or patches, control other things like data input/output, virtual time, etc.

Variables

In programming, variables are a way of storing information. E.g.

my-name = "Nick"

seconds-per-minute = 60

pi = 3.142

infected = True

Variables can belong to different objects in the model.

Variables

Examples:

Different objects can have different variable values

NetLogo Commands

Commands are the way of telling NetLogo what we want it to do

Some examples

(don't worry, these will be explained properly in the first practical):

Commands are very well documented

Brackets

NetLogo uses both square [ ] and round ( ) brackets.

Round brackets are used to set the order of operations. E.g.:

 2 + 3  × 4 = 14

(2 + 3) × 4 = 20

Square brackets are used to split up commands. E.g.:

ask turtles [ ... ]

the ask command expects to find some more commands inside the brackets.

Contexts

Contexts are NetLogo's way of controlling where commands are sent.

There are three contexts:

1. Observer
2. Turtle
3. Patch

Don't Panic: Lots of opportunity to understand these during the practicals..

Flow Control

Programs are recipes

And computers are really, really stupid cooks.

Programmers need to tell the computer exactly what to do, and in what order

Geek joke:

Flow Control and Logic

Usually, NetLogo will run through your code, one line after the other.

But! Sometimes there are two or more possibilities for what to do next.

if statements are one example:

Finally: Writing Nice Code

Computers don't care what code looks like

But there are some good conventions that we can use to make our code easier to understand by humans

Indentation

New blocks of code should be indented (moved to the right)

E.g. the if statements on previous slide

White space

Different sections of code can be separated by lots of white space

Comments

Comments are special parts of code that NetLogo will ignore.

Anything after a ; is ignored.

Use comments to explain what your computer code does.

Indentation

Whitespace

Comments

Summary: NetLogo

Resources

Lots of good text books are available:

Railsback, Steven F., and Volker Grimm. Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: A Practical Introduction. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011.

O’Sullivan, D., and G. L. Perry. Spatial Simulation: Exploring Pattern and Process. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2013.

Gilbert, N., and K. G. Troitzsch. Simulation for the Social Scientist. 2nd Edition. Milton Keynes, UK: Open University Press, 2005.

Heppenstall, Alison J, Andrew T Crooks, Linda M See, and Michael Batty, eds. Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems. New York, NY: Springer, 2012.

And some nice, introductory papers:

Crooks, A. and Heppenstall, A.J (2012) Introduction to Agent-based modelling. In Heppenstall, A.J., Crooks, A.T., See, L.M. and Batty, M. (2012) Agent-based models of Geographical Systems. Springer: Dordrecht.

Macal, C. M., & North, M. J. (2010). Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation. Journal of Simulation, 4(3), 151–162

Bonabeau, E. (2002). Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(90003), 7280–7287.

O’Sullivan & Haklay (2000), Agent-based models and individualism: is the world agent-based?, Environment and Planning A (32), 1409-25

Castle, C. J. E. and Crooks, A. T. (2006). Principles and concepts of agent-based modelling for developing geospatial simulations. UCL Working Papers Series, Paper 110, Centre For Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London.

Undergraduate module (material online): GIS, Geocomputation and Geoplanning

Other Resources

Prof. Bruce Edmonds is one of the big names in agent-based modelling. He has two videos that provide excellent introductions to the methodology

A short one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JANTkSa4hmA

A longer version from a conference presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nEPxb2J73w

Over To You ....

For the remainder of this session, work through the NetLogo Music Festival practicals here:

http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/courses/level3/geog3150/netlogo_festival

See if you can finish practical 3, but don't worry if you don't get that far (this would take undergraduates about 4-6 hours).