CDRC Research: Modelling Smart Cities


Nick Malleson, with thanks to:
Tomas Crols, Jon Ward, Alison Heppenstall, Andrew Evans, Annabel Whipp, Keiran Suchak, Michael Adcock

Schools of Geography & Mathematics, and LIDA

nickmalleson.co.uk

surf.leeds.ac.uk

dust.leeds.ac.uk


These slides: http://surf.leeds.ac.uk/presentations.html

How many people are there in Trafalgar Square right now?

We need to better understand urban flows:

Crime – how many possible victims?

Pollution – who is being exposed? Where are the hotspots?

Economy – can we attract more people to our city centre?

Health - can we encourage more active travel?

Achieve this through agent-based modelling, consumer data, & smart cities?

Ongoing work: Using Agent-Based Modelling to Simulate Cities

Implement virtual 'people' (agents)

Incorporate diverse data (census, loyalty cards, public transport, social media, etc.).

Try to simulate the real world

Problem: Models Diverge from reality

Cities are complex

Human behaviour is difficult to predict

A model will quickly diverge from reality

We need a way to assimilate up to date data into models...

Dynamic Data Assimilation

Used in meteorology and hydrology to constrain models closer to reality.

Try to improve estimates of the true system state by combining:

Noisy, real-world observations

Model estimates of the system state

Should be more accurate than data / observations in isolation.

Diagram of dynamic data assimilation and an ABM

Current Research

ESRC Logo

Simulating Urban Flows (surf)

3 year research project funded by the UK ESRC

Modelling a small town, using real footfall counters

Ultimately stream real-time data into the model dynamically

Modelling Footfall

Wi-Fi footfall counters (CDRC). Case study: Otley, West Yorkshire

The surf model environment in Otley The surf model environment in Otley (zoom in)

Modelling Footfall

Modelling Footfall

Graphs of the model results compared to real data

Current Research

ESRC Logo

Data Assimilation for Agent-Based Models (dust)

5-year research project (€1.5M)

Funded by the European Research Council (Starting Grant)

Started in January

Main aim: create new methods for dynamically assimilating data into agent-based models.

Opportunity: Fully-Funded PhD Scholarships

1. Developing Model Ensembles and Emulators for Next-Generation City Simulation

2. Agent-Based Modelling of Smart Cities

Deadline: 30th April 2018. Start: October 2018

Fully-funded (fees and stipend) for four years

http://surf.leeds.ac.uk/blog.html

CDRC Research: Modelling Smart Cities


Nick Malleson, Tomas Crols, Jon Ward, Alison Heppenstall, Andrew Evans, Annabel Whipp, Keiran Suchak, Michael Adcock

Schools of Geography & Mathematics, and LIDA

nickmalleson.co.uk

surf.leeds.ac.uk

dust.leeds.ac.uk


These slides: http://surf.leeds.ac.uk/presentations.html